ZIMBABWE HALF YEAR ELECTRICITY SITUATION

Based on the ZESA Holdings Weekly Cabinet Update Report for the week ending 29 May 2026

Introduction

Zimbabwe’s electricity sector continued to reflect a markedly more stable operating environment through the first half of 2026, extending the recovery trend recorded earlier in the year. As at the week ending 29 May 2026, the country had recorded 161 consecutive days without load shedding and 180 days in which load shedding, where it occurred at all, did not exceed two hours, underscoring the scale of the operational recovery achieved since the start of the year.[1] This analysis updates Zimbabwe’s electricity situation using the most recent available operational and financial data, drawn from the ZESA Holdings Weekly Cabinet Update Report for the week ending 29 May 2026.

Electricity Supply and Demand Position

Total local generation during the week ending 29 May 2026 reached 1,947 MW, supplemented by imports of 188 MW to bring total supply to 2,135 MW. After accounting for exports of 179 MW, total available supply stood at 1,956 MW against a forecast peak demand of 1,760 MW, leaving an excess capacity of 196 MW at evening peak, with forecast morning and afternoon shortfalls both at 0 MW.[2]

Over the week under review, power supply ranged between 1,586 MW and 1,925 MW, compared with 1,809 MW to 1,930 MW the previous week, a wider range that nonetheless produced no recorded shortfall. Daily peak demand ranged between 1,735 MW and 1,865 MW, up from 1,730 MW to 1,855 MW the previous week, indicating continued demand growth that available supply has so far comfortably absorbed. A total of 200 MW of capacity was ring fenced nationally to support winter wheat irrigation over the period.[3]

Table 1. Weekly power supply and demand comparison.

Supply Adequacy Is Not the Same as Access

The absence of load shedding and the 196 MW of forecast excess capacity describe supply relative to demand already on the grid, not the share of the population with no connection at all. Zimbabwe’s National Energy Compact records national electricity access at 62 percent, 33.7 percent on-grid and 28.3 percent off-grid, split sharply by geography, with 83 percent access in urban areas against 27 percent in rural areas.[4] A more recent National Electrification Strategy estimate puts access at only 41 percent, roughly 1.76 million of 4.3 million households, a gap the Compact itself attributes to a “mismatch between the rate of connections and the rate of increase of households.”[5]

Either figure means the 161-day no-load-shedding streak reported above describes the population already connected, not universal access. The Compact’s own 100 percent electrification target by 2030 treats these as two separate investment problems, generation and grid stability for connected customers, and last-mile rural electrification, mini-grids and off-grid solar for the roughly two in five households still without power.[6] The weekly operational reporting this analysis draws on tracks only the first.

Energy Mix and Generation Structure

Hydropower and coal-fired thermal generation continued to dominate Zimbabwe’s electricity mix. Kariba South Hydro Power Station generated 740 MW from seven of its eight units, with the remaining unit out of service following a damaged turbine runner and not expected to return to service before 2027. Hwange Power Station’s original Stage I and II units generated 330 MW from four of six units, with Unit 5 undergoing a major turbine overhaul following turbine failure and no confirmed return-to-service date, and Unit 6 on a statutory outage that had by the reporting date reached its eighty-third of a scheduled hundred and fourteen days, following an internal Control and Emergency Stop valve failure. The newer Hwange Expansion units, HESCO, contributed a further 614 MW from two units running stably.[7]

Independent power producers added 58 MW, comprising 37 MW from Zimbabwe ZhongXin Electrical Energy’s coal-fired plant, 5 MW from Great Zimbabwe Hydro, and a combined 16 MW from Nyangani Renewable Energy and other mini-hydro schemes. Captive power plants contributed a further 205 MW, led by Zhongjin Heli at 90 MW and Prestige Massive Xintai at 50 MW, with Manhize, Maximind Sabi Star, Triangle, Hippo Valley and Green Fuel together contributing the remainder.[8]

Table 2. Local generation by power station as at 1900 hours on 31 May 2026.

Read through a just energy transition lens, this composition is coal-heavy, with Hwange, HESCO, ZZEE and captive thermal together supplying approximately 1,141 MW, roughly 59 percent of official total local generation, against approximately 761 MW, roughly 39 percent, from Kariba and small hydro. Solar, in any form, does not appear in this total at all; the 1,947 MW official figure is a coal-and-hydro number, with solar’s 91 MW of available supply sitting entirely outside it. Zimbabwe’s solar growth is real but currently invisible in the accounting that drives supply-demand reporting and, by extension, transition tracking.

Renewable Energy and Energy Transition

Solar power supply totalled 91 MW of available generation against an installed base of 121.2 MW, split between solar independent power producers and captive solar installations. Solar IPPs delivered 41 MW of available generation from an installed 53.2 MW, led by Centragrid at 18 MW, Glovers Solar at 9 MW, Guruve Solar at 7 MW, Solgas at 4 MW, Riverside Solar at 2 MW, and Richaw Energy at 1 MW. Captive solar installations delivered a further 50 MW of available generation from an installed 68 MW, with Zimplats the largest single contributor at 25 MW, Blanket Mine and Bikita Minerals contributing 9 MW each, and Turkey Mine and Tanganda Tea Company contributing 4 MW and 3 MW respectively.[9]

A further 92 MW of net metering capacity was recorded as available to the grid when not being drawn down directly by the generating customer, reflecting the continued growth of distributed solar generation across mining, agricultural and commercial customers.[10] Although renewable energy remains a modest share of total national generation, its steady expansion across both independent and captive installations points to a sector in which private investment, rather than public grid expansion alone, is increasingly driving Zimbabwe’s renewable energy growth.

Table 3. Solar power supply status as at 12:00hrs, 31 May 2026.

Fossil Fuels and Thermal Generation

Coal-fired generation across Hwange’s original units and the HESCO expansion together supplied 944 MW during the week, underscoring the continued centrality of thermal generation to Zimbabwe’s supply mix even as renewable capacity expands. Persistent unit-level outages remain a defining feature of thermal performance: Hwange Unit 5 remains out of service pending a full turbine replacement, with no confirmed return date, while Unit 6 has now been out of service for over four months, with repairs dependent on the original equipment manufacturer.[11] This pattern reinforces the conclusion that Zimbabwe’s transition challenge is not the immediate elimination of coal, but a managed transition in which renewable and hydropower capacity expand while thermal plant reliability is addressed as its own, parallel priority.

Independent Power Producers and Captive Power

Independent power producers and captive power plants continue to play an increasingly important role in Zimbabwe’s electricity ecosystem. Independent power producers supplied 58 MW during the week under review, comprising Zimbabwe ZhongXin Electrical Energy’s 37 MW coal-fired plant in Hwange, Great Zimbabwe Hydro’s 5 MW hydropower scheme, and a combined 16 MW from Nyangani Renewable Energy and other mini-hydro schemes.

Captive power plants, which generate primarily for self-consumption by industries, mines and agro-processing companies with potential surplus supply to the grid, supplied 205 MW against an installed capacity of 307.3 MW. Zhongjin Heli remained the largest contributor at 90 MW of thermal generation, followed by Prestige Massive Xintai at 50 MW and Manhize at 20 MW. Maximind Sabi Star contributed 15 MW and Triangle 12 MW, while Hippo Valley and Green Fuel, both bagasse and biomass cogeneration operations, contributed 10 MW and 8 MW respectively.[12]

The growing role of captive and independent power generation reflects two important realities. First, large industries increasingly seek energy self-sufficiency in response to historical grid unreliability and rising energy costs. Second, captive generation is becoming a strategic vehicle for private investment in Zimbabwe’s generation infrastructure, particularly in solar, ahead of the broader public grid’s own expansion.

Taken together, IPPs, captive thermal and captive or independent solar now total 354 MW, close to one-fifth of everything generated in Zimbabwe in a given week, sitting outside Kariba, Hwange and HESCO altogether. This is a genuinely parallel private generation sector, and its significance cuts both ways. It proves private capital will fund generation once the regulatory space allows it, but captive thermal capacity, at 205 MW, still outweighs captive solar, at 91 MW, more than two to one, and unlike Bikita Minerals’ Tokwe investment, most captive power here serves only the company that built it, with no visible link to the household access gap above.

Why Zimbabwe Imports and Exports Electricity

Zimbabwe continued both importing and exporting electricity during the week ending 29 May 2026, reflecting regional market arrangements and the utility’s own financial balancing strategy rather than a simple supply shortfall. The country imported 188 MW, comprising 150 MW from Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa in Mozambique, 15 MW from Electricidade de Moçambique, and 23 MW supplied via ZESCO directly to Zimplats.[13]

At the same time, Zimbabwe exported 179 MW, including 80 MW to NamPower under a facility anchoring investment in the Kariba South Power Plant, 85 MW from the Central Electricity Corporation to the Zimbabwe Power Company to help fund its US dollar obligations, and 14 MW from HESCO via Enpower to meet its own operational foreign currency needs, alongside further bilateral arrangements servicing Zimbabwe’s debt obligations to Zambia and supporting the Zimbabwe Power Company’s own foreign currency receipts. Exports therefore do not indicate electricity abundance; they form part of a deliberate regional financial and operational strategy through which Zimbabwe services debt, earns foreign currency, and anchors investment in domestic generation capacity.[14]

Table 4a. Power imports for the week ending 29 May 2026.

Table 4b. Power exports for the week ending 29 May 2026.

Financial Status of the Utility

The financial position of ZESA and its subsidiaries remained fragile despite the sector’s operational recovery. Revenue collected during the week under review totalled ZWG 232.7 million and US$9.4 million. The utility’s power import balance stood at US$52.9 million, up from US$52.1 million the previous week, following US$3.4 million in new import supply from EDM, HCB and the Southern African Power Pool against US$2.7 million in payments made during the week; the EDM and Eskom arrears have now been fully settled.[15]

Total creditors owed by ZESA amounted to ZWG 29.4 billion, comprising ZWG 19.6 billion in foreign-currency-denominated obligations and ZWG 9.8 billion in local currency. Of the US$730.1 million owed in foreign currency, US$341.7 million is payable to Sino Hydro, the EPC contractor for the Hwange Unit 7 and 8 expansion, with US$462.2 million of the total sitting within HESCO’s own books. ZESA’s total loan book stood at US$1.8 billion and ZWG 442.3 million, comprising US$1.07 billion in recently acquired foreign loans, US$616.6 million in legacy loans currently managed by the National Debt Office, and US$65.9 million in recent domestic foreign-currency loans. The Hwange and Kariba loans from China Eximbank, serviced through ring-fenced customer receipts including Kamativi, Bikita Minerals and Gwanda Lithium, carried outstanding arrears of US$48.1 million and US$46 million respectively.[16]

Table 5a. ZESA loan book as at week ending 29 May 2026.

Table 5b. ZESA creditors and debtors as at week ending 29 May 2026.

Electricity debtors owed ZESA approximately ZWG 17 billion, with the largest balances owed by industrial ferrochrome customers, followed by local authorities and government departments. Farmers, domestic customers and parastatals owed comparatively smaller amounts of ZWG 1.2 billion, ZWG 491.4 million and ZWG 728.1 million respectively. ZESA has formally and repeatedly requested the Ministry of Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion to offset local authority and government debt against amounts ZESA itself owes to the Zimbabwe Revenue Authority, since ZIMRA continues to require VAT settlement on outstanding customer debt regardless of whether that debt has actually been collected.[17]

Revenue assurance efforts continued through prepaid and smart metering rollout. Cumulative prepaid meter installations reached 911,980, with 460 new connections during the week, representing a 99.79 percent penetration of the eligible customer base. Smart meter deployment reached 10,861 units, with Phase 2 installations now complete.[18]

Key Challenges Facing the Electricity Sector

Zimbabwe’s electricity sector continues to face several structural and operational challenges. Ageing thermal infrastructure remains a persistent constraint, with Hwange’s original units continuing to experience mechanical failures and extended maintenance outages, as illustrated by Unit 6’s outage now exceeding one hundred days. High indebtedness and foreign currency exposure continue to strain the utility, since power imports, loan servicing and equipment procurement all require foreign currency that local currency collections cannot easily supply. Climate vulnerability remains a material risk given hydropower generation at Kariba’s continued dependence on Zambezi River flows and annual water allocations. Transmission and distribution infrastructure requires substantial upgrading to accommodate growing renewable energy integration and rising electricity demand, which increased year on year even as supply remained broadly stable. Procurement inefficiencies and delayed project implementation continue to slow sector reform and infrastructure deployment, and the sector continues to navigate the underlying tension between economic growth, industrialisation, affordability, energy security and climate commitments.

Recommendations and Way Forward

Zimbabwe’s electricity sector has demonstrated genuine operational recovery, but the analysis above shows that recovery has occurred alongside, rather than in place of, significant financial and structural vulnerability. Addressing this requires action across several fronts.

Financial stabilisation of the utility is a priority. ZESA’s cash flow problem is as much a collections problem as a generation problem, since debtors owe the utility approximately ZWG 17 billion, while ZESA itself carries ZWG 29.4 billion in creditor obligations, a gap that tighter collection enforcement and government debt offset arrangements could meaningfully narrow.

Addressing the utility’s debt and foreign currency exposure remains essential. With loan obligations exceeding US$1.8 billion and foreign currency creditor obligations exceeding US$730 million, continued reliance on ring-fenced customer receipts and debt set-off arrangements is unlikely to be sustainable without a broader foreign currency generation strategy.

Rehabilitating and modernising generation infrastructure should remain a standing priority. The recurring failures at Hwange, most visibly Unit 6’s outage now exceeding one hundred days, point to a maintenance backlog rather than isolated incidents, and warrant a dedicated rehabilitation financing plan rather than reactive repair.

Accelerating renewable energy integration remains important. The steady growth of captive and independent solar generation, now totalling 91 MW of available supply, and net metering capacity of 92 MW, are meaningful gains worth consolidating through continued regulatory support.

Introducing competitive, transparent IPP procurement would strengthen the sector further. The absence of a standard competitive tender or reverse auction process for IPPs leaves tariff-setting and project selection less transparent than it could be.

Strengthening institutional capacity and governance across contract management, energy planning, project appraisal, monitoring and evaluation, and regulatory oversight would support all of the above.

Securing social license and environmental safeguards will matter increasingly as utility-scale and captive solar projects expand, particularly where projects are sited on community or agricultural land.

Optimising regional trade strategy is also warranted. Because Zimbabwe’s electricity exports are driven by debt servicing and foreign currency needs rather than genuine surplus, the current import-export balance should be reviewed periodically against the utility’s evolving debt profile.

Finally, defining a pragmatic, sequenced energy transition strategy remains necessary. Coal and Kariba hydropower will continue to anchor baseload supply in the short to medium term, and Zimbabwe’s transition pathway should plan explicitly around that reality rather than around its eventual removal.

ZELO’s Value Proposition

ZELO is positioned to support the implementation of these recommendations through its core competencies in energy law, governance, and community engagement.

On legal and regulatory reform, ZELO can draft or review the model instruments this analysis calls for, including a Government Support Measures Policy and a competitive IPP procurement framework.

On contract due diligence and governance capacity, ZELO can support the Ministry of Energy and ZETDC, Parliament and the Attorney General in building the institutional capacity needed to scrutinise energy contracts and financing arrangements.

On community benefit-sharing and social licence, ZELO’s existing community mobile legal aid clinic work on natural resource governance gives it direct, practical experience relevant to expanding solar and captive power projects sited on community land.

On research and evidence generation, ZELO can continue producing the kind of comparative legal and policy analysis reflected in this report, tracking the sector’s financial and operational position over time.

On stakeholder facilitation, ZELO can convene government, utility, investor and community stakeholders around specific reform proposals, including the recommendations set out above.

Conclusion

Zimbabwe’s electricity sector as at the end of May 2026 demonstrated continued progress toward improved supply stability and energy diversification, with 161 consecutive days without load shedding and total available supply comfortably exceeding forecast peak demand over the week under review. Increased hydropower output at Kariba, steady growth in independent and captive solar generation, and continued investment in prepaid and smart metering all point to a sector consolidating the operational gains recorded earlier in the year.

However, the sector remains financially vulnerable and structurally constrained. Ageing thermal infrastructure at Hwange, a loan book exceeding US$1.8 billion, creditor obligations of ZWG 29.4 billion, and electricity debtors owing approximately ZWG 17 billion together represent a financial position that operational recovery alone has not resolved. As Zimbabwe moves into the second half of 2026, sustaining the current supply stability will depend as much on addressing these financial and structural constraints as on the generation performance that has driven the improvement recorded so far.

Read through a just energy transition lens, the mix behind this recovery remains overwhelmingly coal and large hydro, with solar still absent from the official generation accounting, and captive and independent power, now near a fifth of total generation, is decentralising supply mostly for the industrial and mining customers who can finance it, while rural access, at 27 percent, still lags urban access, at 83 percent, by 56 percentage points. Supply adequacy and electricity access remain two distinct problems, and the operational gains documented here address only the first.

[1]ZESA Holdings (Pvt) Ltd, Weekly Cabinet Update Report for Week Ending 29 May 2026, “Non Loadshedding”.

[2]ZESA Holdings (Pvt) Ltd, Weekly Cabinet Update Report for Week Ending 29 May 2026, “Power Supply Status” and “Supply Demand Balance as on 31st May 2026”.

[3]ZESA Holdings (Pvt) Ltd, Weekly Cabinet Update Report for Week Ending 29 May 2026, “Power Capacity Ring Fenced for Winter Wheat” and “Power supply Status for the Week ending 29th May, 2026”.

[4]Government of Zimbabwe, National Energy Compact for the Republic of Zimbabwe (Mission 300), Section 1.2, “Generation Mix and Energy Access”.

[5]Government of Zimbabwe, National Energy Compact for the Republic of Zimbabwe (Mission 300), “Current Status and Challenges” and Annex I.

[6]Government of Zimbabwe, National Energy Compact for the Republic of Zimbabwe (Mission 300), “Declaration by the Head of State”, “Universal Electricity Access”.

[7]ZESA Holdings (Pvt) Ltd, Weekly Cabinet Update Report for Week Ending 29 May 2026, “Local Power Generation by Power Station as at 1900 Hours on 31st May 2026”.

[8]ZESA Holdings (Pvt) Ltd, Weekly Cabinet Update Report for Week Ending 29 May 2026, “Local Power Generation by Power Station as at 1900 Hours on 31st May 2026” (IPPs and CPPs).

[9]ZESA Holdings (Pvt) Ltd, Weekly Cabinet Update Report for Week Ending 29 May 2026, “Solar Power Supply Status as at 12:00hrs”.

[10]ZESA Holdings (Pvt) Ltd, Weekly Cabinet Update Report for Week Ending 29 May 2026, “Net Metering”.

[11]ZESA Holdings (Pvt) Ltd, Weekly Cabinet Update Report for Week Ending 29 May 2026, “OUTLOOK”.

[12]ZESA Holdings (Pvt) Ltd, Weekly Cabinet Update Report for Week Ending 29 May 2026, “Captive Power Plants (Others) as at 31/05/2026”.

[13]ZESA Holdings (Pvt) Ltd, Weekly Cabinet Update Report for Week Ending 29 May 2026, “Power Imports”.

[14]ZESA Holdings (Pvt) Ltd, Weekly Cabinet Update Report for Week Ending 29 May 2026, “Power Exports”.

[15]ZESA Holdings (Pvt) Ltd, Weekly Cabinet Update Report for Week Ending 29 May 2026, “FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE”, “Revenue Collections” and “Power Import Balances”.

[16]ZESA Holdings (Pvt) Ltd, Weekly Cabinet Update Report for Week Ending 29 May 2026, “LOAN STATUS”.

[17]ZESA Holdings (Pvt) Ltd, Weekly Cabinet Update Report for Week Ending 29 May 2026, “CREDITORS AND DEBTORS BALANCES” and “Electricity Debtors”.

[18]ZESA Holdings (Pvt) Ltd, Weekly Cabinet Update Report for Week Ending 29 May 2026, “REVENUE ASSURANCE MEASURES”.